Kashmiri Pandits are longing to return home and have urged the Union government to prioritise the most important bigger question of the government’s plan for the safe, secure and empowered return module for 7.5 lakh Kashmiri Pandits back home in the Valley.

Speaking at a function to commemorate the martyrdom of Kashmiri Pandits massacred on March 23,2003 in Nadimarg, Kashmir, Supreme Court lawyer and noted Kashmiri leader Ashok Bhan wondered how long does the community have to wait for justice for the exiled Pandits.

Bhan urged the current Union government and the Lieutenant Governor’s LG administration to engage with the representatives and thought leaders of the exiled Pandit community to discuss the government’s plan for a safe, secure and empowered return module for 7.5 lakh Kashmiri Pandits back home.

Remembering the martyrdom of 24 members of the Kashmiri Pandit community, including 11 women and couple of infants, on the night of March 23, 2003, Bhan said the victims ranged from a 65-year-old man to a 2-year-old boy.

On that night, a group of masked gunmen wearing army fatigues descended on Nadimarg, near Shopian in the Pulwama district. It was an isolated village on the banks of a stream and the gunmen announced it was a security crackdown, a common feature of those turbulent times.

They asked some of the Kashmiri Pandits in the village to come out of their homes. Then they lined up 24 members of the community and shot them dead one by one. A deadly massacre and genocide inflicted on the native Kashmiris of a composite habitat. Among those killed were 11 women and two infants.

The armed police personnel deployed to guard the village of composite habitation were overpowered, locked up in the picket and their weapons were stolen by the terrorists. The masked terrorists broke into houses of Pandits and dragged them out to fall in line. After the massacre, the surviving Kashmiri Pandits fled the Valley, never to return.

The perpetrators were from the Lashkar-e-Taiba, the internationally-designated terrorist organisation, and were led by their self-styled ‘commander’ Zia Mustafa as was then reported by police. He was arrested in 2003 and held in prison.

In October 2021, Mustafa was taken out of jail by security forces to identify militant hideouts in Poonch. However, in the subsequent encounter with militants, he was killed in the cross-firing.

All efforts to set right and mainstream Kashmir Affairs are incomplete without the return of Kashmiris living in exile for last 33 years to the Valley and without their active participation in promoting the Idea of India process in Kashmir. ”Kashmir’s civilisation is in vacuum without the physical presence of Kashmiri Pandits,” Bhan said.

Supreme Court Senior Advocate Ashok Bhan has today welcomed the visit of the Election Commission of India (ECI) to Jammu and Kashmir from Tuesday.

Bhan, a noted Kashmiri leader and Chairman of the Kashmir (Policy and Strategy) Group, said the people of the Union Territory have been longing and eagerly waiting for the ECI to declare the commencement of simultaneous elections to the Assembly along with the ensuing Parliamentary elections.

Bhan said the people have complained that the prolonged Governor rule is depriving them of their legitimate fundamental right to vote and elect a representative government of their own. The right to democracy through elections is one of the basic inalienable rights of the citizens.

Bhan recalled that the Supreme Court has held that democracy is one of the inalienable basic features of the Constitution and forms part of its basic structure. The concept of democracy as visualised by the Constitution pre-supposes the representation of the people in Parliament and state legislatures by elections. “As such the Governor rule is an exception and the elected representative government is the rule,” he said.

The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly was dissolved by the then Governor on November 21, 2018. It has been more than five years since the people have been deprived of their elected representation in the legislature. Bhan said this provides the opportunity to the ECI to consider and decide the elections to the Assembly along with the ensuing Lok Sabha elections.

Bhan said the ECI is expected to study the ground situation and appreciate that Kashmir “affairs” has a layered nature, obscured by distorted historical narratives, self-serving myths, and conflicting political interests.

“Yet, amidst these complexities, the current ECI needs to demonstrate a sincere commitment to fostering an environment conducive to peace and progress, aiming to break the cycle of violence perpetuated by adversaries, by restoring legitimate democracy in Kashmir.” Bhan said such a move aligns with the constitutional ethos of the nation and could pave the way for synchronised national and state elections.

Bhan said Article 324 of the Constitution vests the power to conduct all elections to Parliament and to the legislature of every state with the Election Commission.

Suprem Court Senior Advocate and Kashmiri leader Ashok Bhan has welcomed Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his visit to Jammu and Kashmir.

With militancy contained, a free and fearless atmosphere in place, schools and colleges open after the winter break, the people of Kashmir are waiting to welcome, greet and meet Modi on his arrival on Thursday, March 7 in Srinagar.

Today, Kashmiri society is at a historic crossroads. Its peaceful ethos, its liberal Islam, its culture of Sufi saints, its Kashmiriyat and its image as a strong citadel of co-existence and pluralistic society was shattered and devastated by decades-old violence by terrorists and mercenaries. The threat of foisting an alien way of life on Kashmiris by pan-Islamic fanatics is very grave. Now society appreciates peace and the law and order process and is inching towards normal revival of civilisational glory fearlessly, Bhan said.

Kashmiri society, which is predominantly Muslim and is in an introspective mode, have chosen a pluralistic, peaceful, democratic and modern way of life and it shall be reflected by their large participation in the PM’s rally, he said. They have introspected on the happenings and violence of the past three decades and have decided their future lies in a socio-cultural dispensation based on plural and mutual coexistence.

Kashmiris across the political and civil society spectrum, including religious leaders, have appealed to their displaced native brethren of the Kashmiri Pandit community to return to the Valley and contribute in the revival of its civilisational ethos. Kashmir is the holy land of science and innovation with divine grace of spirituality through the ages, Bhan said. It’s rightly described as the cradle of civilisation.

Kashmir is incomplete without the Kashmiri Pandits’ presence and participation in the Union Territory’s affairs.

The people are waiting with high hope for the PM to make at least a few important announcements on the promised restoration of statehood, business investment that will increase employment opportunities to educated and skilled unemployed youth.

The people are also eagerly looking forward to the holding of Assembly elections either along with Lok Sabha elections or before September 2024 as advised by the Supreme Court. A structured plan for the physical return of exiled Kashmiri Pandit community to the Valley is also something the people of Kashmir are waiting to hear about, Bhan added.

With the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) set to conduct a camp sitting and an open public hearing on grievances related to human rights violations in Jammu and Kashmir, Senior Advocate Ashok Bhan met NHRC chairperson Justice Arun Mishra on Thursday.

This is the first time the NHRC will address such issues in the region following the abolition of the State Human Rights Commission. Bhan, renowned for his expertise in international law, briefed the NHRC chairperson on the dire human rights situation in Jammu and Kashmir and submitted a note on it.

Bhan emphasized the need for a humanitarian approach towards the victims of the long-standing turbulence in the region, which has witnessed over 30 years of insurgency, leading to violence, displacement, and suffering.

In his two-hour meeting with the NHRC chairperson, Bhan discussed the pressing issues facing the region, including the rehabilitation of internally displaced native populations, addressing the drug menace, and ensuring economic stability for the youth.

Bhan highlighted the importance of winning the hearts and minds of the society and establishing a robust security ecosystem to build faith in the rule of law and democracy.

Human rights abuses in Jammu and Kashmir have ranged from mass killings, forced disappearances, torture, rape, abuses due to using pellet guns and suppression of freedom of speech to bans on religious gatherings, a situation akin to genocide and selective killings.

The NHRC camp sitting and open public hearing are scheduled to take place from February 7 to 9 in Srinagar, with the NHRC inviting individuals to submit complaints of rights violations.

The NHRC will review these complaints, including acts of terrorism that inhibit the enjoyment of human rights, and recommend appropriate remedial measures. They will also examine treaties and international instruments on human rights for effective implementation.

Bhan also reminded the NHRC chairman that the rights body came up when India was in a bind on Kashmir at the UNHRC in 1994. It was after realizing this and to keep international human rights bodies from interfering in domestic affairs that then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao conceived the idea of an internal mechanism to address human rights issues.

Bhan added that despite having its origin to address rights issues in Kashmir, the NHRC never sought any proactive role in the region.

He said it is better late than never that the NHRC has woken up to take up the issue of human rights in Kashmir and also to order ways to ameliorate them.

This development follows the aftermath of the inoperablity of Article 370 and the subsequent winding of the Jammu and Kashmir State Human Rights Commission. The Union Government empowered the NHRC to address human rights concerns in the Union Territory through the J&K Reorganisation Act.

The NHRC’s decision to hold an open public hearing on rights violations comes after call of its conscience and from the Supreme Court opinion to create mechanisms allowing people in Jammu and Kashmir to file complaints directly with the NHRC.

Bhan told NHRC about the brutal human rights situation faced by the Kashmiri Pandit community. Forced displacement, violence, and ongoing discrimination.That left them vulnerable and in need of urgent government and NHRC intervention.The rights to life, liberty, and security of the Kashmiri Pandits are being systematically violated, and their cultural heritage is at risk of being obliterated and erased. National Human Rights Commission is once again urged to investigate these atrocities, ensure accountability, and implement measures to safeguard the well-being and rights of the Kashmiri Pandits and their return to roots is a national demand that deserves serious recommendations.

It is hoped that he NHRC efforts are seen as a healing process and unifying factor for varied sections of the fractured society shattered by the turbulence of the last 35 years, Bhan said.

After the successful Pran Prathishta for the abode of Lord Ram in Ayodhya Nagri, the expectations for Gharvapsi of 700,000 Kashmiri Pandits have skyrocketed, the native Kashmiri community living in exile for the last 34 years are longing to return home—the Valley.

Speaking at a civil society meeting at India International Centre this evening, in which former governors, academicians, civil servants and strategic community members participated, Ashok Bhan, chairman, Kashmir (Policy and Strategy) Group (KPSG), said a dialogue with the stakeholders and an intra-community dialogue will help in giving closure to the sordid and brutal phase of societal devastation, death and destruction that has engulfed the larger South Asian region in general and Jammu & Kashmir in particular.

The people in the Kashmir Valley are carrying the burden as victims of conflict from 1947 and continuing consequences of armed insurgency resulting in exile of the religious minority and killings innocent civilians in the violence perpetrated by non-State actors, others brutalised by them include State actors. January 19, 1990 was a black day in Kashmir’s glorious history. On this day, the whole population of Kashmiri Pandit community was exiled by gun-toting terrorists and since then are living as refugees in their own country. KPSG has always urged the Union Government to engage with KPs and plan their safe and dignified return back home.

Without KPs, the Kashmiri civilisational ethos is incomplete in these modern times and in the vision for Naya Kashmir.

The time has come to give legitimate right to democracy to the people of Jammu and Kashmir and end the prolonged Governor rule. The elections to the legislature can be held along with the ensuing parliamentary elections. The Supreme Court has also commanded the elections to be held not later than September 2024.

In its Article 370 verdict, the Supreme Court’s message is loud and clear: Move forward and focus on the future of Jammu and Kashmir rather than brood over its sordid past!

The judges held that the social fabric is waning and inter-generational trauma has already fractured Kashmiri society. In order to heal wounds and make a forward movement and restore coexistence, the Court said a truth and reconcialition commission should be set up expeditiously to investigate and report on the human rights violations by non-State and State actors at least since 1980s and recommend measures for reconciliation. The judge said the exercise should be time-bound since memories can fade, Bhan said.

Former Governors, including BN Singh, echoed that if the ground-level reports about situation in Jammu and Kashmir are to be believed, then should this not be an opportune time to hold elections along with general elections to save administrative hassle and use taxpayer’s money appropriately besides respect the Supreme Court commandments.

Dr MM Ansari said if the current government thought process is one nation one elections then Kashmir provides an opportunity for simultaneous elections to the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly and Parliament.

Ashok Bhan, the chairman of the Kashmir Policy and Strategy Group (KPSG ), has put forward four points for the Central government to act on with regard to Jammu and Kashmir.

With the anniversary of the displacement of Kashmiri Pandits from the Kashmir Valley falling on Friday, the Senior Advocate said the government should constitute a truth and reconciliation commission as put forth by the Supreme Court in its Article 370 verdict.

Bhan said the government should engage with stakeholders and, particularly, exiled Kashmiri Pandits and create a time-bound plan for their safe, dignified and politically empowered return to the Valley.

He said the government should revive the identity and existence of the people of Jammu and Kashmir hurt by the bifurcation of the state by restoring statehood to the now Union Territory.
The restoration of statehood should be followed with elections to revive institutional democracy under which an election is the rule and Governor’s rule is temporary and an exception.

The KPSG chairman said his group has been continuously holding a series of dialogues via intra-civil society webinars, meetings and interactions through social media platforms, for giving closure to the societal devastation, death and destruction that has engulfed the larger South Asian region in general and Jammu and Kashmir, in particular.

The Kashmir Valley carries a historical burden in a social context. The people are carrying the burden as victims of conflict from 1947 and continuing consequences of armed insurgency resulting in exile of the religious minority and killings of innocent civilians and state actors in the violence perpetrated by non-state actors.

On the eve of January 19, which the Kashmiri Pandits observe as Holocaust Day, a black day in Kashmir’s history, Bhan said the Kashmiri Pandit community was exiled on this day by gun-toting terrorists and have been living since then as refugees in their own country.

He said the KPSG has always urged the Union Government to engage with KPs and plan their safe and dignified return back home. The 34 years of exile is brutal, long and traumatic, and are native Kashmiris, the prime stakeholders in Kashmir’s affairs. Without KPs, Kashmiri civilisational ethos is incomplete in these modern times.

Bhan recalled the importance accorded to Kashmiri Pandits by the NHRC, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the Supreme Court in their utterances.

Senior Advocate Ashok Bhan has been awarded the Prominent Citizen Award by Haryana Higher Education Minister Mool Chand Sharma at a well-attended function organised by Kashmir Peace Keepers (KPL) in the National Capital Region.

Bhan has been awarded in recognition of his exceptional contribution to society. The award is in appreciation of
his commitment and leadership exemplifying the values of the Kashmiri Pandit community, inspiring generations and enriching the cultural heritage.

Bhan is also a bar leader and has been elected as senior executive member of the Supreme Court Bar Association for many years. He is a chamber door tenant with a leading law chamber in London.

He has also represented India as an international law expert along with a parliamentary delegation to the UN General Assembly session. Bhan was the first non-parliamentarian representative in the UN General Assembly to urge the global community on cross-border terrorism in South east Asia.

Apart from being a senior advocate in India, Bhan is well-recognized as a Track-II diplomat and expert on geo-political conflict resolutions. As an expert, he has represented various parties including the Republic of India at the United Nation Human Rights Commission in Geneva for several years.

He is also a distinguished fellow with the United Services of India (USI), a strategic think tank for armed forces on geo-political affairs in India. He is the chairman of the think tank, Kashmir (Policy and Strategy) Group.

He is the son of a veteran freedom fighter SN Bhan, who was a close associate of late Pt Kashyap Bandu ji in the socio-political movement of the Kashmiri Pandit community. He is also a regular columnist and a public speaker.

The Constitution of India frames the rights, principles, procedures, restrictions and duties of the government as well as the people of India. Speaking to lawyers across the country at an event organised by Asia Pacific Lawyers Group, senior Supreme Court advocate and a prominent bar leader Ashok Bhan wished the citizens of India all over the globe a happy Samvidhan Diwas.

He said this day is a reminder to us that while Constitution gives rights to the citizens, frames principles, procedures, restrictions and duties for the government, at the same time it casts duties on citizens to follow the rule of law.

To safeguard democracy, Bhan said people must have a keen sense of independence, self-respect, their unity and oneness, and should insist upon choosing as their representatives only such persons who are honest, grounded, good, truthful and with firm faith in Constitutionalism.

Bhan said two independent countries came into being on the sub-continent on August 14 and 15, 1947. India has been a successful democracy and Constitutionalism has stood the test of being in active practise through institutions. The Indian judiciary has evolved as the apex custodian of protection of Human Rights and a check and balance for any colourable usage of executive powers. The Constitution declares India a sovereign, socialist, secular, democratic republic, assuring its citizens’ justice, equality, and liberty and endeavors to promote fraternity. The Indian Constitution stood the test of time as India has been a successful democracy, unlike many other countries which had become independent at the same time.

Bhan said Constitution Day is observed every year in India. The day is also known as Samvidhan Diwas or National Law Day. Constitution Day is celebrated to commemorate the day when the Constitution of India was adopted.The National Law Day highlights the significance of the Indian Constitution in governing the country. Indians share Constitutional Day and Samvidhan Diwas wishes.

Since 2015 when the Government of India issued a gazette notification, this day is being celebrated as National Law Day. The year also marked the 125th birth anniversary of Dr Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar, the chief architect of the Constitution of India.

He further says, the National Law Day commemorates the pledge of Purna Swaraj, passed in the Lahore session of the Congress in 1930.

By Ashok Bhan

The G20 presidency was not only a diplomatic turning point, but Bharat, that is also India, gained high global standing and prestige in shaping a new peaceful world order.

Under the leadership of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Group of 20 leaders, against all odds, succeeded in adopting a consensus declaration on the very first day of the two-day summit – a major diplomatic breakthrough. Modi skillfully managed to overcome the deep rifts between the East and the West over the war in Ukraine.

In the run-up to the G20 summit, everyone wondered whether India, as G20 chair, would be able to produce a consensus paper, with Russia and the West divided over the ongoing war in Ukraine and China’s President Xi Jinping skipping the summit.

But in a major diplomatic breakthrough, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that the leaders had agreed on a joint statement.

“Amazingly, the 2023 G20 Leaders’ Declaration could be finalised on the first day of the summit, allaying all doubts and fears,” said experts.

Moscow welcomed the statement, calling it “balanced”. However, the Ukrainian foreign ministry criticised the final declaration for not mentioning the Russian invasion, adding that the communiqué was “nothing to be proud of”.

New Delhi has been walking a diplomatic tightrope between the West and its traditional defence ally Russia over the Ukraine war and has resisted Western efforts to condemn Russia. Last September, Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin that “today is not a time for war.”

The reference to war was “far more neutral” than the G20 leaders’ Bali statement, as the New Delhi statement did not mention Russia in connection with the war.

Instead, the final declaration referred to the wording used in the UN bodies, which states that “all states must refrain from the threat or use of force to acquire territory against the territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any state.”

There were other geopolitical successes. One major success was the admission of the African Union as a full member of the G20.

“India has done a really good job of making sure that this summit is much more inclusive compared to previous summits,” said Vincent Magwenya, South African presidential spokesperson.

The inclusion of the AU “is a very positive step towards the reforms that we have always advocated for in terms of reforming the United Nations Security Council and reforming various global multilateral financial institutions,” he said.

Climate was another focus of the G20 summit. While there were no new formulations on phasing out coal compared to the previous Bali summit, the New Delhi Declaration announced the establishment of a Green Hydrogen Innovation Centre, tripling renewable energy by 2030, establishing a global biofuels alliance and shifting funding from billions to trillions.

“The developments come at a time when many parts of the world are reeling from climate-related disasters, so the expansion of renewables must be supported by the gradual phase-out of fossil fuels.

“Both are essential for a just transition and a net-zero world. There is also far too much talk about expensive, unproven emission reduction technologies, which must not be used as an excuse to delay action. We need stronger and bolder action from leaders on all sides.

The joint statement highlights the “human suffering” in Ukraine but does not mention Russia. Bharat has made the G-20 Summit an event for the people and aptly represents the civilisational ethos of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam.”

Bharat is the Boss

With around 220 meetings in 60 cities, nearly 30,000 delegates at the G20 meetings, over 100,000 participants at the side events and the involvement of citizens from all parts of the country, the G20 engaged people in many ways.

Various ministries eagerly pushed for active participation. The Ministry of Education organised Jan Bhagidari events in which various stakeholders such as students, teachers, parents and the society at large participated enthusiastically.

These events, held at the state, district, block, panchayat, and school levels, raised awareness about the G20, the National Policy on Education and the issues of Basic Learning and Numeracy – key priorities of the Indian Presidency. These events attracted a total of over 23.3 million participants, including 15.7 million students, 25.5 lakh teachers and 51.1 lakh community members.

However, the essence of Jan Bhagidari goes beyond attendance figures. A range of activities – from the insightful G20 University Connect lecture series to interactive model G20 meetings, special G20 sessions in educational institutions, G20 pavilions at prominent festivals, quiz competitions, selfie contests and the captivating #G20India stories – played a crucial role in fostering broad and enthusiastic engagement.

The working groups used innovative means to increase public engagement. In particular, the G20 Infrastructure Working Group initiated a G20 Cyclothon and a motorbike rally on National Youth Day.

In addition, the Indian G20 Presidency highlighted India’s distinctive model of cooperative federalism. States and Union Territories competed to welcome the G20 delegates, generate local and regional enthusiasm and showcase their respective traditions and achievements.

In many cases, this has provided an opportunity to undertake development initiatives that have contributed to such projection. Some examples are the restoration of Loktak Lake in Manipur, urban rehabilitation campaigns in Mumbai and infrastructure improvement in Lucknow.

This synergy has not only showcased indigenous cultural heritage and craft skills on a global platform but also increased employment opportunities for various communities. Many delegates saw for themselves the richness of the ‘One District One Product (ODOP) initiatives and had the opportunity to visit craft centres themselves.

In addition, the fascinating natural landscapes and architectural splendour of India were showcased, leading to a strong resurgence of tourism after Covid-19. The economic benefits of the way the G20 programme was implemented across the country are still unfolding.

By celebrating the G20 Summit across the country, we have tried to create a transnational experience that is beneficial to both India and the world. It is fair to say that the G20 Summit has made India more mature for the world and the world more mature for India as a whole.

The various working and engagement groups have also been a powerful platform to generate social interest and engagement on global issues. In cases like science, they have helped us think together about the key challenges we face.

Similarly, the working group provided an opportunity to share experiences for mutual benefit. Youth 20 was particularly impressive and a strong endorsement of the Jan Bhagidari approach. More than 125,000 delegates in 1563 sessions were able to bring an energy to the Presidency that is truly remarkable.

The Civil 20 event alone touched 45 lakh people worldwide. Social media proved to be a key tool in the G20 process, mobilising citizens and igniting public engagement, resulting in over 14 trillion social media impressions.

Two world records were set

Civil 20 has touched 45 lakh people worldwide alone. Social media proved to be a key tool in the G20 process, mobilising citizens and igniting public engagement, resulting in over 14 trillion social media impressions.

Two world records were set in the course of public participation. First, 1.25 lakh students from 800 schools participated in the G20 quiz in Varanasi. At the same time, 450 Lambani artisans showcased their skills and artistry by producing an amazing collection of around 1,800 unique patches.

The Indian Presidency witnessed wide-ranging debates and discussions on issues critical to our common future.

Of particular note are issues that require the participation of society – a goal that can only be achieved if messages reach the global community. A good example of this is LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment), which encourages environmentally friendly changes in our daily habits. Similarly, highlighting digital delivery encourages us all to develop digital comfort in our regular transactions.

For its part, the emphasis on women-led development highlights the key role they play in societal progress. The emphasis on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals will also accelerate as greater awareness of the centrality of these goals to global prosperity emerges.

Speaking on Mann ki Baat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi described India’s G20 presidency as a ‘people’s presidency’. This was both a description and a motivation that illustrated how harnessing ideas and energies in our country has helped create a truly wonderful and memorable participatory G20. Bharat very well proved that it has achieved global leadership. Bharat is a global boss.

—Ashok Bhan is a Senior Advocate and a geopolitical analyst

By Ashok Bhan

After its dismemberment in 1971, Pakistan faces political and economic crises that could threaten its very existence. With the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and the army and the incumbent government bringing out all guns against him, the country’s problems have become complicated. Kashmiri youth, who have been entranced and led to believe that honey and milk flow across the border, now realize that there is no point in dreaming of a failed state.

With the Pakistani rupee plummeting in value and foreign exchange reserves dwindling, the country is struggling to import vital products such as food, leading to deadly stampedes at distribution centres. Fears that Pakistan will be unable to service its debt have persisted for months.

Protesters turned on the Pakistan military after Imran Khan’s arrest. Violent clashes erupted in the country following Khan’s dramatic arrest on corruption charges. The country’s ability to receive much-needed financial aid remains in question.

Paramilitary troops entered a courthouse in Islamabad to arrest Khan, who was ousted from power last year. His arrest-which the Supreme Court later ruled unlawful-has sparked a storm of outrage. Supporters have stormed buildings and clashed with security forces.

Inflation reached an annual rate of 36.4% in April, with the cost of food rising nearly 47% in urban areas and more than 52% in rural areas, according to CNN. People line up outside a flour distribution centre in Islamabad to receive free flour from the government.

According to Tahir Abbas, research director at Arif Habib, a financial firm in Karachi, the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves of about $4.4 billion are enough to cover about a month’s worth of imports.

According to US network TV, the “balance of payments” crisis is undermining living standards in a country still reeling from last year’s devastating floods. It could “reverse poverty gains made over the past two decades and further reduce incomes for already poor households,” the World Bank warned last month.

Widespread protests have added to the pain. With the government’s credibility at a new low and public anger growing, investors believe it is unlikely that reforms called for by the IMF to improve the country’s fiscal situation will be adopted, as they would contribute to economic difficulties shortly.

Moody estimates Pakistan’s external financing needs for the fiscal year 2024, which begins in July and runs through June next year, at $35 billion to $36 billion.

Pakistan is beset by one crisis after another

In February, the rating agency said that about 50% of government revenues “in the next few years” will have to go toward paying interest on debt,” exacerbating economic woes and fueling political discontent. “A significant share of revenues devoted to interest payments will increasingly constrain the government’s ability to service its debt while meeting the population’s basic social spending needs,” Moody’s wrote in its report.

Pakistan’s problems did not begin with the fall of Imran Khan. The country has been in deep crisis since its inception. At a time when the idea of India is growing stronger by the day, Pakistan is still struggling with an identity crisis: the country was created as a dream home for South Asian Muslims. But instead of following Jinnahism and the teachings of its founder, it has chosen jihadism.

It has made terrorism and radical terror part of its state policy. Instead of building on the common pluralistic heritage of India, to which Muslims also contributed and distinguished themselves, successive Pakistani regimes and intelligentsia preferred to build the idea of Pakistan on the pillars of Islam and enmity against India. Hatred against India was made a national narrative. Time has proved that Pakistan’s paranoia against India is unfounded.

The use of terrorist groups as part of its security and foreign policy demonstrates its obsession with India, which it perceives as an existential threat. Pakistan’s ideology is based on the twin pillars of Islam and hostility toward India. Pakistan never understood that as a nation-state it should shape its history and move forward, but lived with historical appropriation and distortions of the past. “India-Pakistan relations have been shaped by partition in 1947, the Kashmir problem, and military conflicts between the two South Asian neighbours. Relations have always been marked by conflict, hostility and mistrust, although the two countries share common linguistic, cultural, geographic and economic ties.

Not only with India but also with the eastern part of Pakistan, today’s Bangladesh, the western part could not make peace. A mass genocide of the Bengali population was instigated by the Pakistani army, which is now dealing with a popular civilian leader in much the same way it dealt with the strong Bengali man Sheikh Mujib ur Rahman, which eventually led to the dismemberment of the country. The way the army and Khan are pitted against each other, further dismemberment of the country does not seem far away. Even staunchly pro-Pakistan forces in Kashmir are looking for answers, wondering if it is still practical or feasible to turn to Islamabad.

India has always offered an olive branch to amicably resolve some of the pressing issues, including Jammu and Kashmir. From Prime Minister Nehru to the present Prime Minister Narinder Modi, India has pursued a policy of constructive diplomacy and people-to-people engagement to strengthen bilateral relations.

The India-Pakistan border ceasefire is one such measure that has alleviated the hardships of people living near LOC and has led to a significant reduction in cross-border infiltration and terrorist activities.

Rogue elements patronising terrorists

The rogue elements in the Pakistani establishment have patronised the terrorists who have become fully armed militias everywhere and they are indulging in and sustaining the violence. These rogue elements equip the militants with sophisticated weapons and commission them to use them on Indian soil The recent terrorist attack in Rajouri is a real case in point.

It is the first time that the Pakistan Army has been rocked by attacks by the public on Army installations to guard against the Army’s use of draconian laws. No one is in control, it is free for all, there is extreme lawlessness and the political struggle has reached the streets.

It is time for Pakistan to focus on its affairs to overcome the economic crisis and deep political turmoil. Kashmiris have given up on Pakistan as a failed nation and now believe that Pakistan has only brought death and destruction first to Bangladesh and then to Kashmir and now to itself.

There is no need to rant any further about Kashmir. Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari cut a poor figure and betrayed his naivety and incompetence by ranting about Kashmir and isolating himself.

Back home, Khan has waged an unprecedented campaign against Pakistan’s powerful military, accusing it of conspiring against him to oust him from power and then plotting to assassinate him.

Strategy experts have warned that the political unrest could exacerbate a severe economic crisis and increase insecurity not only in Pakistan but throughout South Asia. “Pakistan is now facing a major systemic crisis,” political experts say. Pakistan is no stranger to crises, but the scale and simultaneity of this crisis have magnified their magnitude. “According to experts, nuclear-armed Pakistan, the world’s fifth most populous country, has long been considered too big to fail. But that view may be changing due to deeper turmoil and vulnerabilities in the system.

The political turmoil is likely to exacerbate the deepening economic crisis in Pakistan, which is struggling with rising inflation and increasing poverty and unemployment. The cash-strapped country faces the threat of default. The International Monetary Fund has delayed granting a loan to Islamabad for months because it is demanding immediate reforms.

Oversized army

Pakistan is also struggling to contain attacks by militant and separatist groups. The extremist group Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has intensified its insurgency against Islamabad in recent years, carrying out deadly attacks in major cities. On May 12, two Pakistani soldiers were killed and three wounded when suspected militants attacked a security post in the troubled southwestern province of Balochistan, underscoring the deteriorating security situation. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had to call in the army to restore order.

Pakistan’s army, which plays an outsized role in the country’s domestic and foreign policy, had issued a warning on May 11, saying it would take action against those who wanted to push the country into a “civil war” Since Khan lost a vote to reject a conference in April 2022, he has called for early elections, which the incumbent government has rejected. The 70-year-old was ousted after falling out with the military, which was widely accused of putting Khan in power through a rigged parliamentary election in 2018, a charge denied by both parties.

Observers say the army has since rallied behind Sharif and his coalition government, which includes representatives of the main political parties. Sharif is known as an effective administrator and pragmatist and maintains friendly relations with the military.

Senior government officials have accused the judiciary of siding with Khan, who still enjoys strong support in the country. “All institutions are divided, and divided institutions will weaken Pakistan,” There is an imminent danger of collapse due to the foreseeable political instability caused by invalidation.

There has been speculation that the military may impose martial law. In the country’s 76-year history, the army has already carried out three coups. Even during civilian rule, the military has often assumed the role of ruler. However, according to observers, the current army chief, General Asim Munir, is unlikely to impose military law given the disunity within the institution. Some members of the military are believed to support Khan. Pakistan is currently ruled by a weak civilian government that is overshadowed by the military. In the future, the army could take full control, in an arrangement described as a “hybrid regime on steroids” Given the fractured political landscape, further unrest in the country is likely. The future is bleak: Experts say Pakistan is not “growing together”

The deadliest attack in 2023 occurred in Peshawar police stations, where a suicide bomber killed more than 80 people and injured more than a hundred. The attack occurred at a mosque in a high-security zone of Peshawar, where the police headquarters is also located.

Tehreek-e-Talibban Pakistan, a banned organization, has expanded its attacks since negotiations with it ended last November, focusing mainly on KP police and regions bordering Afghanistan.

Since the Afghan Taliban took power across the border, there have been countless reports of terrorist groups, particularly the TTP, organizing and carrying out attacks.

Given the profound political turmoil in Pakistan, policymakers should focus on addressing the precarious situation in Pakistan rather than on a tirade against India’s G-20 chairmanship. The G-20 is not only a watershed event for India, but holding the meeting in Kashmir should showcase to the world the full flowering of tourism potential and the extent of development of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. It is one of the rare opportunities for the youth of Kashmir valley to tell the world that India is the land of modern, scientific and peaceful life while Pakistan means death and destruction for Kashmiris.

—Ashok Bhan is a Senior Advocate,
Supreme Court of India and a
geo-political analyst