By Col R Hariharan

India-Canada relations that took a severe beating a fortnight ago after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, accused India of complicity in the murder of a Canadian citizen and Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, are showing no signs of recovery. The reason for this is simple; as External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar puts it: “(Khalistan) separatism, crime, and terror all mixed up” in this issue. Nijjar was shot dead outside the Gurdwara he presided over in a suburb of Vancouver, British Columbia, on June 18, 2023. Trudeau chose on the floor of Canadian parliament to accuse India for Nijjar’s killing, based on “credible allegations of potential link” between Indian government agents. The accusation shocked India, which dismissed it as “absurd and motivated.” The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in a hard-hitting statement said: “Similar allegations were made by the Canadian PM to our PM and were completely rejected.” (It was referring to their meeting on the sidelines of the G20 Summit meeting. PM Modi had conveyed “strong concerns” about “extremist elements in Canada” who were “promoting secessionism and violence against Indian diplomats, damaging premises and threatening the Indian community in Canada and their places of worship.”)

The MEA statement further affirmed “such unsubstantiated allegations seek to shift the focus from Khalistani terrorists and extremists, who have been provided shelter in Canada and continue to threaten India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity….the inaction of the Canadian Government on this matter has been a long standing and continuing concern… The space given in Canada to a range of illegal activities, including murders, human trafficking and organised crime is not new.” It urged the Canadian government “to take prompt and effective legal action against all anti-India elements operating from their soil.”

The issue of Khalistan terrorist presence in Canada is not new; it had come up when the two leaders met on the sidelines of the G-7 plus Summit in Germany in May 2022.  Trudeau during his latest visit to New Delhi had confirmed that he had discussed with PM Modi India’s concerns over Khalistani groups. He added: “Canada will always defend freedom of expression, freedom of conscience, and freedom of peaceful protest and it is extremely important to us. At the same time, we are always there to prevent violence and to push back against hatred.” The Canadian prime minister said the actions of a “few” did not represent the whole community or country. That had been Canada’s refrain to soft pedal Khalistan extremist activities.

Trudeau’s actions cannot be dismissed merely as a diplomatic faux pas. It is easy to attribute it to compulsions of domestic politics, because Nijjar was an influential Sikh, involved in organising a “referendum” on Khalistan. As a militant leader of Khalistan Tiger Force, Nijjar has a criminal record in India that secured him two Interpol Red Corner notices. He visited Pakistan in 2013-14 where he met with Jagtar Singh Tara of Babbar Khalsa International and was recruited in the ISI. In 2020, India designated Nijjar a terrorist under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act. Last but not least, he was probably a double agent working for Canada. His son Balraj Singh Nijjar has said his father had been meeting with Canadian Security Intelligence Service officers “once or twice a week”, including one or two days before his murder.

The American ambassador to Canada, David Cohen, has clarified that the Canadian prime minister’s allegation was based on “shared intelligence among Five Eyes partners.” Five Eyes is an intelligence alliance between the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Originally, it was created as a US-UK alliance in 1941 to share signals intelligence. In the post-war years, it came to be known as Five Eyes after Canada, Australia and New Zealand were admitted. Ambassador Cohen further added: “There was a lot of communication between Canada and the US about this. We have been coordinating with the Canadians on this issue. And from our perspective, it is critical that the Canadian investigations proceed, and it would be important that India work with the Canadians on this investigation. We want to see accountability, and it is important that the investigation runs its course and leads to that result.” The US, UK, Australia and New Zealand have been cautious in their comments; they have expressed their concern and encouraged India to collaborate in the ongoing investigation.

The reason for Five Eyes to eavesdrop on India’s communication on Khalistani extremism is obvious: these extremists have been active in all the Five Eyes countries. They have defaced Hindu temples and have been holding violent protests in front of Indian consulates, creating panic among Hindus. India had drawn the attention of these countries to the extremists’ anti-India activities at the highest levels. However, they have been giving a broad brush to India’s concerns. Their diplomatic attitude towards India is best described by American actor Will Rogers who said Diplomacy is the art of saying “Nice doggie” until you can find a rock.

On the positive side, Trudeau’s open accusation of India’s complicity in Nijjar killing has provided India an opportunity to relook at its actions against Khalistan extremism, both at home and abroad. This is evident from Jaishankar’s speech at the “Discussion at Council on Foreign Relations” in New York. He said: “In the last few years, Canada actually has seen a lot of organized crime, relating to the secessionist forces, organized crime, violence and extremism. They’re all very, very deeply mixed up….in fact, we have been talking about specifics and information.

“Indian government has provided the Canadian side with a lot of information about organised crime and there has been a large number of extradition requests. There are terrorist leaders, who have been identified,” he further added. “So, we have a situation where our diplomats are threatened, our consulates have been attacked….A lot of this is often justified, as saying that’s how democracies work.” Jaishankar further said: “If there is any incident which is an issue and somebody gives me something specific, as a government, I would look at it.”

At home, India has taken firm action. It is filing cases in the UK against 15 Khalistani Indian passport holders, who had vandalised the Indian high commission premises in London. The National Intelligence Agency (NIA) is currently carrying out raids in 51 locations in six states targeting individuals linked to three notorious gangs—Lawrence Bishnoi, Bambiha and Arshadeep Dalla—associated with the Khalistani criminal network. The NIA has ordered the seizure of the Indian properties of 19 Khalistani fugitives, including that of Gurpatwant Singh Pannu, general counsel of the banned pro-Khalistan outfit Sikhs for Justice (SFJ). India has temporarily closed its visa office in Canada and stopped the entry of OCI and PIO card holders. These measures seem to have affected the number of pro-Khalistan supporters gathering to protest outside the Indian consulate in Vancouver after these orders. In the last count, there were hardly a dozen protesters. 

However, the future course of India-Canada relations is not clear. Perhaps, some clarity will emerge when the slated meeting of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Jaishankar takes place in the next few days. Hopefully, some measures can probably be expected to defuse the India-Canada standoff.

—The writer is a retired military intelligence specialist on South Asia associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies

By Kenneth Tiven

In an age of terrorism and war, these English-speaking nations share gathering and analyzing intelligence data, much of it from mobile voice and data communications, satellites, and emails. Faster and more sophisticated than what the British did to decode Enigma transmissions used for German military signals during World War Two. To be blunt, everything spoken or written on a computer-linked mobile device exists somewhere. If you think Internet search engines are a marvel for their content, it doesn’t compare to what governments have gathered. An added dimension exists at this level. Searching for data is often like the proverbial needle in a haystack, but the government has a unique capability. 

In old-fashioned wiretapping, either the sender or receiver needed to be known. Not so with these digital signals because they contain significant data attached beyond the message itself—including crucial geodata. The intelligence approach is to sift and sift. And where it gets more productive is combining it with other databases to learn who else is connected to it. These electronic footprints are far more extensive than the cookies you leave behind while Google and advertisers capture your Internet excursions.

High-speed supercomputers retrieve enormous amounts of data to sift, and sort. What language or coding system a government agent uses to tell the home office “mission accomplished” makes no difference. The Canadian intelligence system has likely stored every phone call and internet mail sent or received in the weeks before and after the event. Usually, it has been stored routinely somewhere to be reviewed later by secret high-speed intelligence equipment. 

This approach probably turned up information that matched details of the professional hit job that killed Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in his truck as he left the temple parking lot on a June evening. Eyewitness accounts and security camera footage made it obvious this was not a random criminal act, especially given Nijjar’s activism on Sikh separatism. A reasonable speculation is that when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in India for the G20 meeting in early September, he hinted in a conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi that Canadian law enforcement surmised India was involved in the killing. That and awareness that the New Delhi government is unhappy with Canada’s attitude towards activist Sikhs perhaps accounts for the apparent frostiness in their meetings.

Trudeau, with mounting pressure at home over the extra-judicial killing of a Canadian citizen on his way home for supper with his family, decided to go public, knowing there is incontrovertible electronic evidence of another nation’s involvement. The legal quandary is obvious and the solution is always dangerous. One nation may define a person as a terrorist. In contrast, the nation where this person resides refers to him as an activist or freedom fighter, making legal extradition challenging. Indian authorities were clearly upset with the separatist rhetoric flowing from this Sikh temple near Vancouver, British Columbia, now a centre of nearly 8,00,000 Sikhs with a militant young second generation of Canadians of Indian extraction. When nations act on this situation, they are engaged in extra-judicial killings or kidnappings. 

The most famous in recent decades is the USA flying into Pakistan with a special forces team to capture and then kill Osama Bin Laden for his role in the 9/11 terror attacks in America that killed thousands. Israeli agents kidnapped Adolph Eichmann for his role in killing millions of civilians during World War II in Europe, took him to Jerusalem, put him and the nazi-engineered holocaust on trial, and executed the architect of the “Final Solution”. 

—The writer has worked in senior positions at The Washington Post, NBC, ABC and CNN and also consults for several Indian channels

By Dilip Bobb

The Hosannas and hype surrounding the success of the G-20 meeting in Delhi has taken a beating after one its participants, Justin Trudeau of Canada, made the shocking claim that India may have been involved in the killing of a Sikh Canadian citizen in a Vancouver suburb in June. Trudeau said there were “credible allegations” of links to New Delhi, which India angrily rejected as absurd. It has been a free fall since: Each expelled a diplomat, India suspended visas for Canadians, and Ottawa said it may reduce consulate staff over safety concerns. Delhi has confiscated houses and land belonging to those it terms as Canada-based Khalistani “terrorists”.

Ties between the two once-close countries have sunk to their lowest point in years. Trudeau skipped an official dinner hosted by the Indian president, and local media reported he was snubbed by Modi when he got a quick “pull aside” instead of a bilateral meeting. To make things worse, a flight snag saw him stranded in New Delhi for 36 hours. Finally, back in Canada, Trudeau said he had raised the allegations with Modi at the G20. While there’s been no public evidence, a Canadian official told The Associated Press that the allegation of India’s involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist, is based on surveillance of Indian diplomats in Canada — including intelligence provided by a major ally. On Friday, the US ambassador to Canada confirmed this, saying information shared by the intelligence-sharing ‘Five Eyes’ alliance helped link India to the killing.

The diplomatic controversy comes at a time when the General Assembly is meeting and India has a diplomatic mess on its plate. The electronic surveillance intercepts provided to Canada by the US under the charter of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance which indicated the involvement of India in the killing of Nijjar is being seen as credible, though India continues to issue denials that are less than convincing. The first reaction from Canada’s western allies, including its big neighbour, the United States suggests that the diplomatic fallout is a matter of concern for Indian officials, mainly its growing ties with the West. After an initial muted response, the White House has intensified its concerns. “There’s not some special exemption you get for actions like this, regardless of the country,” security adviser Jake Sullivan said. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US was deeply concerned about the allegations and that “it would be important that India work with the Canadians on this investigation.”

The diplomatic row could also affect India’s long-standing bid to be part of the UN Security Council. In April, foreign minister S. Jaishankar said India, the world’s most populous country with the fastest growing economy among major nations, couldn’t be ignored for too long. The UN Security Council, he said, “will be compelled to provide permanent membership.”

Kept out of the UN’s most important body, India has landed at the centre of a tangled web of global politics. On one hand, New Delhi is part of the Quad and the G20, seen as mostly Western groups. On the other, it wants to expand its influence in the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where Russia and China dominate. At the United Nations, where he held a news conference and meetings, Trudeau told reporters that he doesn’t want to cause problems but said his decision was not made lightly. Canada, he said, had to stand up for the rule of law and protect its citizens. For New Delhi, the UN meeting may present a possible opportunity. Indian and Canadian diplomats could meet on the sidelines to try to lower temperatures with a potential assist from Washington.

The damage, however, has already caused a major rift in Indo-Canadian relations and as long as Trudeau’s party, now at its lowest point in the polls, continues to believe it can survive by support from pro-Khalistan elements, the rift can only widen further and turn into a diplomatic headache for the West, which India has been courting ever since Donald Trump and Modi walked arm in arm at the Namaste Trump event in February 2020. Modi, and India, should be worried. As the famous quote goes; “In diplomacy, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests.” 

By Kenneth Tiven

The dispute between Canada and India over the killing of a Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh activist, is escalating dramatically based on alleged electronic intelligence linking Indian officials and diplomats to the killing. The Canadian national broadcaster reports there is pressure for the government to release the “credible allegations”. Speaking to reporters at the United Nations in New York on Thursday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called on India to cooperate with Canadian authorities to “uncover the truth” behind the killing.

The Biden administration’s efforts for a rapprochement between India and the USA on a number of issues is not helped by an acrimonious dispute between Trudeau and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 

Jake Sullivan, the top US national security adviser said this is a “matter of concern for the White House” and that officials were in talks with their Indian counterparts. “There’s not some special exemption you get for actions like this,” he told reporters. “Regardless of the country, we will stand up and defend our basic principles and we will also consult closely with allies like Canada as they pursue their law enforcement and diplomatic process,” he said. 

This entire issue blew into the open on Monday when Trudeau told Canada’s parliament that Nijjar’s murder outside his Sikh Gurdwara in British Columbia in June may have been done by Indian government agents. Trudeau must have known things would go downhill as he had briefly raised the issue with Modi at the G20 meeting. “Any involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty,” he said.

Trudeau’s inherent Canadian politeness barely masks his penchant for direct speech, which has often startled political observers at home and abroad. 

India’s ministry of external affairs “completely rejected” Trudeau’s claims which it described as “absurd” and politically motivated. It accused Canada of providing shelter to “Khalistani terrorists and extremists” who threaten India’s security by seeking an independent Punjab nation. “We urge the government of Canada to take prompt and effective legal action against all anti-India elements operating from their soil,” the Indian ministry said. 

When Nijjar became influential within the Sikh temple a decade ago, it shifted towards a more intense position on the issue of separatism. Today, the yellow flags of a theoretical Khalistan are around the grounds of the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara temple near Vancouver. This is the largest temple in British Columbia which is the centre of the Sikh diaspora in Canada. 

Canada is believed to have the largest concentration of Sikhs outside of Punjab, nearly 800,000 people among the 1.4 million people of Indian ethnic or cultural origin there. Sikhs are about 2% of Canada’s population, with Ottawa having designated this past April as Sikh Heritage Month. Nijjar, 45, was shot dead in June in his vehicle by two masked gunmen in the busy car park of the Gurdwara in Surrey, a city about 30 km east of Vancouver.

The Sikh community in Canada has shifted with the second-generation, the children of Sikhs who fled to Canada after violence in India in the 1980s, according to Canadian experts. They add it is not easy to measure how the entire Sikh community in Canada feels on the issue of separatism. 

Diplomatic responses to political statements were quick to come. 

Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said she has ordered the expulsion of “a senior Indian diplomat”. Joly said allegations that an agent connected to the Indian government was behind the death of Nijjar are “troubling and completely unacceptable if true.” 

Her office said that diplomat is Pavan Kumar Rai, the head of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), India’s foreign intelligence agency, in Canada. “My expectations are clear. I expect India to fully collaborate with us and get to the bottom of this,” Joly said. 

Hours later, India said it had expelled a Canadian diplomat with five days’ notice to leave the country. In a statement early Tuesday, India’s foreign ministry said the Canadian high commissioner, or ambassador, in New Delhi had been summoned and told: “The decision reflects the government of India’s growing concern at the interference of Canadian diplomats in our internal matters and their involvement in anti-India activities,” the ministry added. 

Descriptions of Nijjar vary dramatically depending on who is talking. His leadership of the Temple and the community is praised, with his passing lamented since being gunned down by two men who escaped. Nijjar vocally championed activist groups, including the Khalistan movement, which seeks to carve out an independent Sikh homeland in India called Khalistan.

As a prominent Sikh separatist leader, he publicly campaigned for Khalistan—the creation of an independent Sikh homeland in the Punjab region of India. Most of this effort has been outside of India, because in recent years, the Modi government has cracked down on such sentiments and any opposition to its Hindu nationalism. 

India has in the past described Nijjar as a terrorist who led a militant separatist group—accusations his supporters say are unfounded. They say he had received threats in the past because of his activism. 

The Indian response is simply that “such unsubstantiated allegations seek to shift the focus from Khalistani terrorists and extremists, who have been provided shelter in Canada and continue to threaten India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” a ministry statement said. 

All of this is proving to be a delicate matter for the Biden administration, which has been mending fences with the Indian government as it seeks to strengthen bilateral  relationship across Asia. In June, India’s prime minister received a warm welcome at the White House. 

Trudeau’s departure from India after the G20 was delayed because of technical problems with his aircraft. His national security adviser instead went directly to London to brief the British government in person that Canada’s relations with India were about to get a whole lot worse. Concurrently, there were also a flurry of conversations between Trudeau and the leaders of the US, Britain and France.

The United States says it’s asserting support for Canada in the midst of a foreign-affairs crisis that places it in an uncomfortable quandary. A report in The Washington Post said Ottawa had tried and failed for weeks to get its allies to publicly condemn the Nijjar murder. Late Tuesday, the Canadian Broadcast Corporation said the US administration had specifically reached out to dispute the Post story. That same US official then pointed to a statement made Monday night by Adrienne Watson, a spokesperson for the White House national security council, which called on the Indian government to co-operate with the Canadian investigation.

Back on Canada’s west coast, Moninder Singh, a spokesman for the British Columbia Sikhs Gurdwaras Council, told the BBC that the community appreciated “that at least the prime minister stood up and acknowledged that there is a foreign hand behind this murder”. After Trudeau’s comments, several large posters and tributes to Nijjar were visible at the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara in Surrey. The World Sikh Organization in Canada welcomed Trudeau for confirming what it thinks is widely believed in the community. Nijjar was wanted by Indian authorities and had been designated as a “terrorist” in July 2020. He had been warned by Canada’s spy agency about threats against him, according to the World Sikh Organization of Canada, which alleged he was “assassinated in a targeted shooting.” 

In 2018, Trudeau assured India that Canada would not support anyone trying to revive a separatist movement in India, but he has repeatedly said he respects the right to free speech and assembly of protesters to demonstrate. Canada has its own history of dealing with separatism. In the 1960s, Quebec was the centre of a terrorist movement attempting to separate Quebec from the rest of Canada and establish a French-speaking nation. As a result in 1969, French and English were both declared the official languages of Canada, where previously Canada had one official language: English. In 1974, French became the official language of the province of Quebec.

In June, India’s foreign minister criticized Canada for allowing a parade float depicting the 1984 assassination of then-Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi by her bodyguards, perceived to be glorification of violence by Sikh separatists. 

Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc said the RCMP is leading the murder investigation. “We’ll hold the perpetrators accountable and bring them to justice,” he said.

Recently, threats have particularly targeted Indian diplomats and sections of the Indian community who oppose the anti-India agenda. Indian nationals are therefore advised to avoid travelling to regions and potential venues in Canada that have seen such incidents.

Of the more than 800,000 international students in Canada at the end of 2022, more than 320,000 were from India, according to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada data. India’s Ministry of External Affairs advised Indian nationals and students, that “in view of growing anti-India activities and politically-condoned hate crimes and criminal violence in Canada, all Indian nationals there and those contemplating travel are urged to exercise utmost caution.

Visitors from India rank as Canada’s fourth largest international air travel market, according to the census. In 2021, the 89,500 tourists from India spent $3.4 billion, the most of any group visiting Canada. Canadians visiting India spent $93 million, the most of any group visiting Canada. Canadians visiting India spent $93 million the same year. 

With more than $13.7 billion in export trade, India was Canada’s 10th largest two-way merchandise trade partner in 2022, while imports to India totalled $5.3 billion, ranking ninth. After the frosty encounters between Narendra Modi during the Group of 20 meeting, trade talks have been paused and a planned trade mission to India has been cancelled. 

—The writer has worked in senior positions at The Washington Post, NBC, ABC and CNN and also consults for several Indian channels