Lakhimpur Kheri Violence: Supreme Court reserves its order in plea challenging bail to Ashish Mishra<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe big picture<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nHow can one view the overall situation, in the above backdrop? Here are the options:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- Russia loses steam: Russia has been forced to spend beyond its capacity and is looking for a face-saving exit from Ukraine. It has already said that Phase 1 of the war is over that their \u201cmain objective\u201d of freeing the Donbass region has been achieved. Also, Ukraine\u2019s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that he no more wants to be part of NATO.<\/li>
- Russia sinks into economic disarray: The overall result of the strains of war and sanctions destroys the economy and the Rouble tanks. There is hunger and corruption in Russia and, despite discounted sales of fuel to India and China, the country is reduced to begging for aid.<\/li>
- The cost of rebuilding Russia: Maybe Putin will stay, maybe he will be dislodged. But if Russia is to again gain access to the nearly trillion dollar deposits in stocks and bonds that have been frozen in the West, Russia might have to stop its war machine and buy goods from the West, or China.<\/li>
- China takes up the space: Whether it is financial or strategic, China is in a great position to extend its influence further. If the SWIFT system is affected, a China-based model can take over the financial exchange markets. Money will find it more difficult to travel cross nations and continents, affecting world trade.<\/li>
- China in Russia: Vladivostok, the eastern extreme of Russia, now filled with immigrant Chinese traders, could slowly fall back into Chinese hands. The Russian mainland will then be breached.<\/li>
- Rebuilding Ukraine: The destruction of Ukraine will also mean the rebuilding of it. Guess which country\u2019s real estate developers will have the biggest say? If in doubt, look at Iraq and Kuwait.<\/li>
- Defence rebuilding of Japan: Japan has already committed to rebuilding its defence forces. Now it will start by importing arms and arsenal. Guess which are the countries to benefit?<\/li>
- The trade medium: There is a probability that the Rupee-Rouble and Yuan-Rouble trades will gain traction to a huge extent. The dollar standard might slowly be restricted to the western hemisphere.<\/li>
- Banking anomalies: If money cannot flow easily, money will stagnate. And that is not good for any economy. The banking systems might see major overhauls. Even the crypto currency future looks good, but that is not a stable method of funding an economy.<\/li>
- The hunger games: Europe\u2019s bread basket is in ruins. India can gain, China will, so will palm oil producers such as Malaysia.<\/li>
- A new picture: The world economy may break into two, somewhat unequal but distinct parts, one in the eastern hemisphere one in the western. When Russia is under pressure, India will have to shift its weapons purchases to the west, where the dollar rules. Or, Indian companies might be able to set up companies in Russia, availing of technology. The Chinese won\u2019t be too far behind, though.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
This war has the ability to destroy and reshape. Sadly, the Ukrainians will have paid heavily, so would have the common Russian. Joe Biden will, probably, fade into ignominy. Watch out for the future of Iron Man Zelenskyy. He seems to have acted the key facilitator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The author writes on legal, economic and corporate issues, apart from social commentary. He is Executive Editor at India Legal<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Economist Raghuram Rajan has recently said that sanctions are also weapons of mass destruction. An analysis of how these impositions can create long-term havoc and imperil commercial, fiscal and industrial activity across the globe. Also, a look into the actual beneficiaries of the war.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":30,"featured_media":264269,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[272],"tags":[88521,116299,116300,926],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/d2r2ijn7njrktv.cloudfront.net\/IL\/uploads\/2022\/04\/04134953\/War-in-Ukraine-1-Twitter.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.indialegallive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/264256"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.indialegallive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.indialegallive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.indialegallive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/30"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.indialegallive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=264256"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.indialegallive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/264256\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.indialegallive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/264269"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.indialegallive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=264256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.indialegallive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=264256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.indialegallive.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=264256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}